Forecast for Disaster: The weather behind Black Saturday

When Australia's worst bushfire struck regions across Victoria on Black Saturday, February 7, 2009, it took over 170 lives, left more than seven thousand homeless and became the country's most devastating weather events on record. What were the weather conditions that led to this perfect storm of destruction?

The Weather Channel’s senior meteorologist Senior Meteorologist Dick Whitaker says the signs are long drought, a little rain, growing fuel, low humidity and hot desert winds. These were ingredients for the previous bushfire disasters of Ash Wednesday and Black Sunday. “We’re seeing nature at its worst: It’s turning fires into megafires”.

The documentary Forecast for Disaster provides us with the statistics behind the fires, such as:

• February’s heatwave broke temperature records across south-eastern Australia and February 7 saw Melbourne endure its hottest day ever, with a 46.4 degree maximum.
• Fireballs of wind raced at up to 120kmh, and fire indexes over 200
• Victoria’s record temperatures peaking at 48.8’C and up to 100 megawatts of energy per metre.
• If you could capture the energy released from the fires there would be enough power for all industry and domestic users in Victoria for two years.
• These extreme temperatures melted metal.

In Forecast for Disaster, The Weather Channel's meteorological experts, survivors, fire scientists and the Country Fire Authority’s Chief Officer Russell Rees describe the weather that day and the lead up to it. The documentary includes exclusive material from bushfire survivors, CFA footage and The Weather Channel’s own coverage of events.

Forecast for Disaster premieres Saturday May 2 at 6.30pm on The Weather Channel, available on FOXTEL and AUSTAR on Channel 603. Also screening Sunday May 3 at 6.30pm, Saturday May 9 at 6.30pm and Sunday May 10 at 6.30pm

How can we learn from history to teach students to prepare for future bushfires?

The Sunday Age says "we name the biggest fires like battles: Before 2009’s Black Saturday, before 1983’s Ash Wednesday and before 1939’s Black Friday there were other "great fires" — Black Thursday in 1851; Red Tuesday in 1898; Black Sunday in 1926 — stretching back to when white settlement disrupted the Aboriginal practice of "firestick farming".

Historian Tom Griffiths wrote recently: "For those of us who know the history, the most haunting aspect of this tragedy is its familiarity. The 2009 bushfires were 1939 all over again, laced with 1983. The same images, the same stories, the same words and phrases, and the same frightening and awesome natural force that we find so hard to remember and perhaps unconsciously strive to forget."

Australia is one of the most bushfire prone areas in the world. This is caused by weather patterns that dry out the fuel for fires while the volatility of eucalypt oils in the vegetation increases the incidence and spread. However, human factors have also contributed to the incidence of bushfires.

“An integrated, nationwide program of school and community education is needed for Australians to learn how to live with bushfires,” reported a Government enquiry. . By teaching children about bushfires, they will be better equipped to cope with its threat, and be able to pass this knowledge onto their families, writes the AFAC.

The education section of the Weather Channel website has a range of lesson plans and worksheets which have been tailored to suit the secondary school geography curriculum with the help of the Australian Geography Teachers Association. There’s one on bushfires and heatwaves – you will need to sign in (free), then click on “teachers”. Lesson 1 is the most comprehensive, and you can adapt it to suit Forecast for Disaster.

What are some of the student activities you can incorporate into your lessons?

The Weather Ed website's lesson plans outlines some activities for students:

• Defining terms
• Drawing graphs and analysing data
• Explaining weather patterns from synoptic charts and weather forecasts.
• Describing the weather and climate factors that contribute to bushfires
• Discussing the interaction of weather patterns prior to and during bushfires.
• Understanding the different types of bushfires
• What are the Natural and human causes of bushfires
• What are the impacts on human life and on the environment
• Understand the need to prepare for bush.
• Develop an emergency plan

Resources you may find useful:

• The Weather Channel is available on FOXTEL and AUSTAR on Channel 603. It’s website has a range of teaching resources
• .
• edna has many web links and documents on bushfires.
• EnhanceTV has copies of the Forecast for Disaster documentary as well as a feature article .
• Listen out for The Weather Channel’s Senior Meteorologist Dick Whitaker in an upcoming EnhanceTV podcast.

Further questions We'd very be interested to hear how you teach students about the weather and bushfires, especially across various school ages, and what programs you would recommend. If you've seen Forecast for Disaster, what did you think of its relevancy for the classroom?